For some reason or another, Bitcoin traders and investors have begun to fear the worst again. In fact, investors like hedge fund manager Mark Dow (who shorted the $20,000 BTC top of late-2017), have started to claim that the recent drop implies that the cryptocurrency market is on the verge of macro collapse.Their thesis: the rally from $3,000 to $14,000 from December 2018 to June 2019 was just an “echo bubble” of the previous market cycle, not anything more.Related Reading: Eat My Shorts: Everything You Need To Know About The Bitcoin Bart PatternDespite these assertions, a leading on-chain analytics-centric analyst claims that the “bull run is near” as a number of metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s long-term bull bias remains intact. Here’s more on that.Bitcoin Long-Term Bias Still LongPhilip Swift, the founder of cryptocurrency analytics site LookIntoBitcoin, recently issued a 10-part thread, showing that Bitcoin’s price bias remains positive due to a confluence of factors.Firstly, Swift quipped that the cryptocurrency is holding above its 350-day simple moving average; this is important as the price moving and holding above this moving average “has always indicated the start of Bitcoin bull markets.”THREAD: $BTC: On-chain and market cycle update TL:DR – Bull market is close!— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) December 5, 2019Secondly, he noted that Bitcoin’s Network Momentum indicator, which tracks the movement of coins to determine the usage of the network, has begun to trend higher, bouncing off bear market levels. This is something often seen six to 10 weeks prior to the beginning of a bull market, Swift remarked.And lastly, the Golden Ratio Multiplier, an equation that the analyst created to analyze the BTC price, implies that the cryptocurrency could see an explosive move to $12,000 to $13,000 by January of February. For some perspective, Bitcoin hitting $12,000, Swift’s low-end estimate, from current prices would require it to surge by some 65%, in three months’ time no less.Related Reading: Bitcoin CME Futures Gaps Are Filled With 95% Certainty, But Trading Them Is RiskyFundamentals AgreeThe fundamentals are also leaning positive, a top venture capitalist working in the industry has argued.Speaking to Bloomberg on Monday, Blockchain Capital’s Spencer Bogart remarked that the fundamentals are leaning in favor of bulls.One of Bogart’s first points conveyed to the Bloomberg audience is that Bitcoin remains a very useful network from a transactional standpoint, “processing $1 billion to $3 billion worth of transactions daily,” which is a far cry from when the cryptocurrency was deemed “a joke” just years ago.
Next, he looked to the growth in and adoption of a number of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency fiat on-ramps into the industry, specifically looking to the growth in his firm’s portfolio companies Coinbase and Kraken as a way to back his point.
Lastly, Bogart drew attention to a survey that his company ran earlier this year that was focused on gaining insight into the American public’s thoughts on Bitcoin as an investment. The survey indicated that a near-majority of under-35s believes that Bitcoin is a good technological innovation, will be used in the future, and would consider purchasing BTC in the near future.
One year ago yesterday (November 14th, 2018), the price of Bitcoin (BTC) began to tank. During that day, the cryptocurrency fell from $6,200 — where it had held for a majority of the summer months — to $5,500, a 12% drop that was the worst daily performance for the asset in over two months.It is now November 15th, 2019. What happened during that fateful day, and what has changed in the crypto industry since then?Related Reading: 50DMA: Bitcoin Price Facing Dangerous Retest Of Moving AverageOne Year Anniversary of the Bitcoin CrashSeptember to November of 2018 was a weird time for the cryptocurrency markets; then, a majority of analysts were leaning long, as Bitcoin had managed to hold $6,000 for months on end, leaving many to suggest that this level was a long-term bottom.Related Reading: Former ECB President’s Statement Shows Bitcoin Does Have Impact on the EconomyThough, on the morning of November 14th, this was proven not to be the case. As aforementioned, BTC collapsed by 12% out of nowhere, falling after months of consolidation in a seeming bottoming pattern.The exact cause of the plunge was never pinpointed, though it coincided with the start of a hash rate war between Craig Wright’s and Jihan Wu’s camps in the Bitcoin Cash ecosystem, and capitulation of BTC miners and other industry members.Bitcoin’s -12% performance on that one fateful day triggered a four-week move that eventually brought the cryptocurrency as low as $3,100 — depending on what exchange you check — by the middle of December.The eight-week period between the middle of November and the start of January was arguably the most apathetic the cryptocurrency market had been in years, with cryptocurrency firms dumping their staff as capital runways became short, analysts calling for sub-$2,000 Bitcoin prices, and mainstream media opining that the blockchain gravy train had crashed entirely.Happy anniversary to that… I guess.How’s Bitcoin Celebrating the Anniversary?While this is likely just a coincidence, an extremely important signal flashed bearish during this year’s “anniversary” of the start of the infamous 2018 capitulation. Per previous reports from NewsBTC, the Hash Ribbons — an indicator tracking the health of Bitcoin’s hash rate — has just seen a bearish crossover. While this may not mean much in and of itself, the bearish crossover of the Ribbons was last seen “just before Bitcoin broke down from $6,000… TL;DR this is a bearish signal.”Potential miner capitulation at a hash rate cross. Great chart by @caprioleio. #Bitcoinpic.twitter.com/fBMwrrzHxf— Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh) November 14, 2019What Has Changed Since Then?This may leave you wondering, what has changed in the cryptocurrency industry since November 14th, 2018? A lot. A lot a lot.We won’t bore you with the details, so here’s a brief summary of key industry events that have taken place since the capitulation of yesteryear:Bakkt finally launched its Bitcoin futures market, and has since seen modest though still growing volumes. Since launching its futures contracts, the upstart has revealed intentions to launch options and cash-settled futures, alongside a cryptocurrency payments application that will be usable in Starbucks. Bakkt has also launched its custodial platform to all institutions. Facebook unveiled Libra, marking the first corporate cryptocurrency at any notable scale. Libra has yet to launch due to regulatory restrictions and key partners like PayPal jumping ship.China has embraced blockchain technologies after banning Bitcoin trading in 2018.A BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) for the U.S. market remains a quixotic dream.President Donald Trump talked about cryptocurrencies, bashing them in a out-of-left-field Twitter thread.So yeah, a lot has changed. Whether the above is bullish for the cryptocurrency market is up to you, though.Related Reading: Bitcoin Open Interest May Act as Rocket Fuel for Explosive Bull MovementFeatured Image from ShutterstockSource
Within less than three weeks, since July 9, the bitcoin price has fallen from over $ 13,000 to below $ 10,000, which many investors regard as a key psychological level for the crypto asset. While the dominant crypto asset initiated a strong recovery on July 17 from around $ 9,200 to $ 10,600, it has struggled to climb above […]
Over the past few months, analysts have been questioning if Bitcoin (BTC) really is in a bull market. Just two weeks ago, the leading cryptocurrency was down nearly 50% from its year-to-date peak of $14,000 — something that many took as a signal that Bitcoin was back in a bear market phase.But, a key technical indicator has shown that the crypto market remains in a bullish phase. The thing is, another drop in the BTC price, even to $8,000, could make that indicator flip bearish for the first time since March 2018 — just shy of the $20,000 top of the last bull run.Related Reading: Ethereum Price Has Potential to Surge Higher as Bitcoin Slows: AnalysisBitcoin Still in Long-Term Bull Market, Indicator SuggestsIf you’ve followed cryptocurrency trading at all, you’ve likely seen the terms “golden cross” and “death/bear cross” incessantly mentioned on Twitter and TradingView. For some reference, golden and death crosses in technical analysis refer to when moving averages (MAs) cross each other to signal a trend; golden crosses see short-term MAs crossing above long-term MAs, and death crosses the other way around.According to a recent analysis by Byzantine General, a popular trader on Twitter, a bear cross of the 50-day exponential moving average and the 200-day exponential moving average was just averted. This implies that Bitcoin remains in a long-term bull trend, as golden and death crosses of these two moving averages have long been indicative of macro trends.The 50 & 200 EMAs on the 1D timeframe are a good indication of bull & bear market. They’re much more clear than the regular DMAs.We still haven’t had a bear cross. Interesting.#bitcoinpic.twitter.com/l7QTkDNplY— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) November 10, 2019This isn’t the only indicator implying such. Trader and CoinTelegraph contributor FilbFilb found that by the end of November or start of December, the 50-week and 100-week moving averages will see a “golden cross,” which he claims is far more significant” for the Bitcoin market that other technical crosses.Related Reading: Bakkt Sets New Volume Record After Bitcoin Price Tanks 6%To put a cherry on the cryptocurrency cake, Crypto Thies observed that when Bitcoin bottomed at $7,300, it bounced decisively off the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the move from $3,000 to $14,000, which correlates with the two-week volume-weighted moving average. He added that summer 2019’s consolidation was marked by Bitcoin flipping major resistances into support levels, implying that a bullish reversal and subsequent continuation is likely possible in the coming weeks.Related Reading: Stephen Colbert Pokes Fun at Bitcoin in Monologue: Mainstream Gone Wrong?Featured Image from ShutterstockSource