On July 3rd, the analyst put the community to a vote, asking whether or not they believe in the model. The results were almost split down the middle.
Almost Half of Respondents Don’t Believe in S2F Bitcoin Price Model
On July 3rd, the pseudonymous quantitative analyst posted a poll to his Twitter page, followed by over 115,000 individuals.
The question: Do you think Bitcoin will reach $288,000 before Dec. 2021, $100,000 before December 2021, $55,000 before December 2021, or will BTC stay below $55,000?
The prices mentioned were derived from the iterations of the S2F model. The iterations of the model will become invalidated if BTC does not reach the prices mentioned by December 2021.
Over 42.5% of respondents to PlanB’s impromptu poll said they don’t think Bitcoin will pass $55,000 before that time. Though the rest of the respondents, 57.5%, said that a move past $55,000 is possible within the next 18 months.
Do you think #bitcoin will reach $288K (S2FX), $100K (S2Fv2), $55K (S2Fv1) before December 2021, or will BTC stay below $55K?
— PlanB 🔴 (@100trillionUSD) July 3, 2020
The mixed readings the community has on the model comes as some have become more critical of PlanB’s work.
Nico Cordeiro, the CIO of crypto fund Strix Levithan, released a report last week attempting to debunk the model. The report is entitled “A Chameleon Model – Why Bitcoin’s Stock-to-flow Model is Fatally Flawed.”
It suggests that because the model predicts a Bitcoin price in excess of $200 million per coin, it is logical. Cordeiro also noted that he doesn’t see any evidence suggesting the S2F ratio of gold has affected its price over history.
Economist Alex Krüger has echoed the skepticism, writing earlier this year:
“People using S2F to predict BTC may as well be using the moon cycles to predict BTC. […] The S2F analysis is interesting. But the S2F model is useless for predicting price, as the underlying assumptions of the model are not met. Now and always.”
PlanB Has Prominent Supporters
Although there are some skeptics, PlanB still has support from some corners of the Bitcoin space.
Bitcoin educator/programmer Jimmy Song wrote the following message on July 2nd. The premise of it is that it’s well too soon to deem the model valid or invalid:
“Why are people dunking on the s2f model just a few difficulty adjustments past the halving? The prediction was that BTC will be $100k before the end of 2021. Declaring victory now is like declaring victory 5 minutes into the game.”
The Keiser Report co-host Max Keiser has echoed the sentiment. The prominent investor said that he thinks the arguments attempting to “debunk” the S2F model are simply “random word-salads by attention seekers.”
So far, the arguments “debunking” S2F for BTC appear to be just random word-salads by attention seekers.
— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) July 3, 2020
“S2F is a valid and vital analysis of the Bitcoin price,” Keiser added, presumably referencing the lack of proper valuation models.
Featured Image from Shutterstock Price tags: xbtusd, btcusd, btcusdt Nearly Half of Crypto Twitter Doesn't Think Bitcoin Will Hit $50k in 2021