Bitcoin has surged by up to 24 percent ahead of closing the week despite the Coronavirus-induced global market sell-off. Nevertheless, the benchmark cryptocurrency could end up losing a large chunk of its gains heading into the new seven-day timeframe.That is because of two bearish indicators. As Bitcoin trends upward, it is leaving behind a trail of pivot highs and lows converging towards a single point known as the apex. These price movements are forming a Rising Wedge, a reversal indicator seen in the bear markets. Meanwhile, bitcoin’s daily volume is falling, which also indicates a trend reversal is underway.BTCUSD forming two bullish reversal patterns at the same time | Source: TradingView.com, CoinbaseBoth Rising Wedge and Volumes are working hand-in-hand to push the bitcoin price down, Evidence of such behaviors are stamped across the trading history of traditional markets. The e-mini Russel Index in 2007, for instance, surged impressively amidst the Shanghai stock market panic but later confirmed the rise as a fakeout.E-MINI RUSSELL INDEX track record from 2007 | Source: InvestopediaThe same model shows that bitcoin could – any day – break below the Rising Wedge support trendline to confirm a breakdown. Such a move would have the cryptocurrency roughly test $5,000 as its next downside target. The length of breakdown is typically the same as the height of the Rising Wedge.Bullish CaseIt is important to notice that bitcoin this week has performed exceptionally well against a looming macroeconomic crisis led by the fast-spreading of the Coronavirus pandemic.The cryptocurrency’s 80 percent recovery after bottoming out below $4,000 in March has led optimists to predict an extended upside momentum. Top analysts believe that since central banks are injecting trillions of dollars into the banking system to offset the impact of Coronavirus, they are involuntarily devaluating the US dollar.That means that more and more investors would start offloading their cash reserves for scarcer assets. And since there can be only 21 million Bitcoin in existence, it is potentially a go-to-asset for the safe-haven seekers.The bullish sentiment for bitcoin is also visible in its technical narratives. Alistaire Milne, CIO of Altana Digital Currency Fund, tweeted his interpretation of bitcoin’s next moves.This would be evil …#bitcoin pic.twitter.com/3Z3NfcxvOC— Alistair Milne (@alistairmilne) April 4, 2020That means the bitcoin price would invalidate the Rising Wedge narrative and would rather trend inside an Ascending Triangle, a bullish continuation pattern.If it happens, the bitcoin price could easily jump above $10,000.Since you are here… Take advantage of the trading opportunities with Plus500Risk disclaimer: 76.4% of retail CFD accounts lose money. Source
Despite the crypto crash that transpired last month, emotions are running hot; leading investors think Bitcoin will near its $20,000 all-time high, established at the end of 2017, in the near future. Here’s why they’re so optimistic.Related Reading: King of the Hill: Top Crypto Investor Explains Why Altcoins Are Highly RiskyBitcoin Investors Think Price Will Reach $20,000… ShortlyOver the past few weeks, a number of crypto analysts have touted the sentiment that within the coming year, the price of Bitcoin will surpass $20,000 — nearly 200% higher than the current price of $6,700.People touting this sentiment include Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz, Raoul Pal of Real Vision, and Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital — all former institutional traders turned crypto bulls.Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: Bitcoin Holds $6,000s, Federal Reserve To Do “QE Infinity,” U.S. Digital Dollar ProposedThe Math Agrees With the SentimentWhat’s interesting is that the math mostly agrees with this lofty sentiment.In March of 2019, pseudonymous analyst PlanB released the below chart to the world, revealing that the value of the Bitcoin network (all coins in aggregate) can be determined by the scarcity of BTC. Scarcity, in PlanB’s eyes, was best determined by the stock-to-flow ratio, or the amount of an asset’s above-ground supply over the amount of the asset minted in a year.PlanB’s econometric model found that after the block reward halving in May of this year, the fair value of the Bitcoin network will rise to $1 trillion to $2 trillion, which coincides with approximately $50,000 to $100,000 per coin.The model has been found to have an R squared of around 93% to 95%, depending on what installment of PlanB’s model you look at. The model is also “cointegrated,” suggesting that the model is not spurious.Notably, the model doesn’t say that the price of Bitcoin should be at the fair value at the time of the halving, but rather predicts a rise to that level with time.It’s Not That SimpleAlthough the expectation is Bitcoin will hit $20,000 within the coming year, some say that a crashing stock market could change that.Chris Burniske of Placeholder Capital explained that he’s open to the idea Bitcoin will see some further downside, despite already falling to the $3,000s on the Mar. 12 capitulation event:From a market perspective, here’s the opportunity as I see it: If global markets freak out again, then there are any number of lows in the $5000s, $4000s and $3000s that BTC could reach. Other cryptoassets would test their own lows.He added that there’s a good likelihood BTC revisits $3,000, citing the fact that the crypto lost the key capitulation level of the 200-week simple moving average and global assets remain in turmoil.Featured Image from ShutterstockSource
Futures linked to the bitcoin market experienced a spike in their volumes this Thursday as the cryptocurrency’s spot rate broke above $7,000.Crypto statist Skew highlighted that trading activity on CME’s and Bakkt’s bitcoin derivatives marketplaces surged by up to $595 million and $27 million, respectively. The move uphill left CME’s open interest as high as $217 million. On Bakkt, meanwhile, the value of outstanding futures contracts topped near $9.3 million.“CME and Bakkt both with strong showings yesterday, the largest volume since Mar 16th,” tweeted Skew on Friday.BTCUSD Futures volume spikes on the day the pair crosses above $7,000 | Source: SkewReturn of Big Players to BitcoinAnalysts treat Bitcoin Futures’ statistics as a gauge to measure institutional interest in the emerging Bitcoin industry. The higher the Open Interest gets, the more it confirms bitcoin as a matured asset class. It shows more and more people are betting on bitcoin’s future price.While CME settles the bets in paper money, Bakkt offers to do the same via bitcoin. That creates real demand for the cryptocurrency.Matt Hougan, the global head of research at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, treated the Thursday’s volume spike as a signal to bitcoin’s growing demand among big market players. He stated on the day:“Today is the first day in a while that CME bitcoin futures volume has significantly exceeded Coinbase bitcoin trading volume, an early signal that institutions may be starting to look at crypto again.”Interesting to see CME bounce back. Over a longer time period, institutions appeared to be sitting on the sidelines in March during the heightened vol as spot volumes were > than CME futures. pic.twitter.com/KDbEXa7SIs— John Todaro (@JohnTodaro1) April 2, 2020DeflationThe statements appeared as the global economy continued to suffer losses amidst the fast-spreading Coronavirus pandemic. The US central bank and government earlier announced a plethora of stimulus packages to safeguard the economy, which includes a near-zero interest rate and a $2 trillion worth of cash injection.Bulls for a long time have projected the economic aid as a slow poison for the US dollar. As the pandemic spreads, the greenback is likely to trend higher. But its over-supplied nature could cause massive inflation in the long run, a scenario that typically leads investors to put part of their money in deflationary assets, such as Gold.The Fed’s balance sheet exploded by $557.3 billion in the last week to $5.812 trillion. More shocking, money supply surged by $436.1 billion. In the past two weeks, the Fed’s balance sheet is up by $1,143.4 trillion, fourteen months of QE3, and money supply is up $606.2 billion.— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) April 2, 2020Bitcoin appears as an alternative to gold, the most typical risk-off hedging asset against fiat-induced inflation. The cryptocurrency has a limited supply cap of 21 million units. Speculators believe its growing demand could lead the price towards $100,000 per token in the coming years.Weekly Federal Reserve Update: $550 billion printed this week. That’s 5x annual gold production (before shutdown) or 4.5x the entire market cap of bitcoin. This isn’t going to stop until political and economic leaders adopt a philosophy of money.— Roy Sebag (@roysebag) April 3, 2020The spikes in CME’s and Bakkt’s daily volume and open-interest somewhat proves that bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative is not dead. The cryptocurrency remains up by about 82 percent from its year-to-date bottom below $4,000. That shows there is adequate demand for it among investors who want to protect their fiat-enabled savings from central banks’ inflationary practices.Since you are here… Take advantage of the trading opportunities with Plus500Risk disclaimer: 76.4% of retail CFD accounts lose money.Source
ETH Price Prediction – April 2
ETH/USD started today on a negative note but a sustainable move above $150 will improve the technical picture.
Resistance levels: $170, $180, $190
Support levels: $110, $100, $90
ETHUSD – Daily Chart
ETH/USD has tested $135 during early Asian hours as the price went down and touched the $133.56 level but later managed to recover above $150 to touch $151.74. The price of Ethereum (ETH) with the current market value of $141 has stayed unchanged on a day-to-day basis and gained nearly 3.84% since the coin rebounded amid the recovery across the cryptocurrency markets.
However, the Ethereum price has continued to rise further higher until it finds resistance at the expected level of $45. Looking at the daily chart, we can see that ETH/USD even spiked higher into the resistance level at $151.74. Therefore, if the buyers push the market higher one more time, the immediate resistance above the $160 level will be located. Above this, further resistance levels lie at $170, $180 and $190.
Alternatively, if the bears step back into the market to bring down the price below the 9-day and 21-day moving averages, the bears can expect immediate support to be located at $130 which is below the 9-day MA. Below $120, further support is found at $110, $100 and $90 levels. Meanwhile, the RSI (14) moves above 45-level, which signals a more bullish movement.
Against BTC, Ethereum is still trading above the 9-day moving average within the descending channel and the price is now hovering at 2089 SAT as the RSI (14) faces the north by moving above the 39-level. Although the bears remain the dominant of the market, the bulls will need to break the upper boundary of the channel to take charge.
ETHBTC – Daly Chart
Furthermore, the resistance levels to be reached are 2300 SAT and 2400 SAT. Conversely, a lower sustainable move below the 9-day moving average may likely cancel the bullish pattern and this could attract the sellers coming back into the market with the next focus on 1900 SAT and 1800 SAT support levels.
Please note: Insidebitcoins.com is not a financial advisor. Do your research before investing your funds in any financial asset or presented product or event. We are not responsible for your investing results.
Bitcoin prices jumped overnight to retest $7,000 but risked falling into a bull trap as no sound catalyst justified its pump.The benchmark cryptocurrency rose 9.67 percent in just four hours to $6,767 per token midnight Thursday. The move uphill injected about $7 billion into the bitcoin’s market cap, which topped near $121.97 billion ahead of the European morning session. Later into the day, the price pulled back by up to 2.3 percent.BTCUSD heads above $6,500-resistance to test $7,000 as its next upside target | Source: TradingView.com, CoinbaseThe price jump – nevertheless – saw bitcoin breaking above a near-term support/resistance level near $6,500. That confirmed the cryptocurrency’s inclination to retest $7,000, a level it has attempted but failed to break since its pullback from the year-to-date low of $3,858 in March.Offloading Bitcoin RisksBitcoin’s inability to pierce above the $7,000 price ceiling shows traders’ interim profit-taking behavior in a macro risky market. The fast-spreading of COVID-19 has led investors to withdraw their money from the market. That has left a huge dent on all the traditional markets, be it the Dow Jones, the S&P 500, or even Gold. Every asset is facing an extreme downside risk.So far, there is no cure for the novel coronavirus. US President Donald Trump has warned Americans about “very, very rough two weeks” that has also prompted investors to seek safety in cash – the US dollar. The greenback is up 3.45 percent on a year-to-date timeframe owing to a similar safe-haven demand.As a result, all the leading markets are choppy. They rise aggressively on an intraday basis but fail to build up a concrete upside momentum. Bitcoin is no different.Now, this is an interesting chart. Bitcoin and the SPX are currently extremely correlated as liquidation pressure turns all assets into risk assets. This correlation would last forever but it shows that people are using $BTC for liquidity. It is likely the puking of risk assets pic.twitter.com/hNUJRGVZIN— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) March 29, 2020Staying BullishSo it appears, the cryptocurrency could be entering yet another bull trap with its Wednesday pump. It shows no signs of continuing an uptrend based on the macroeconomic narrative. And even hardcore bulls within the bitcoin space believe it would not rise until the COVID-19 crisis settles.Travis Kling, the founder of bitcoin-enabled Ikigai Asset Management, pitted the cryptocurrency against the ever-inflating mainstream economy, noting that the government’s response to an economic crisis is to inject trillions of unbacked dollars into the system. The strategy could help them near-term but hurt everybody’s savings in the long-run.“After the dust settles, economic activity resumes and central banks and governments inject *many trillions* of new dollars into the world by increasing balance sheets and deficits. Off that bottom, there is no other asset on the planet that will move like Bitcoin,” said Mr. Kling.As of now, bitcoin’s next potential price action is a retest of $7,000, followed by a pullback towards $6,500. In another scenario, the cryptocurrency’s uptrend could exhaust ahead of hitting $7,000, causing a rebound to or below $6,500. Both cases would see it dipping below $6,000.On a brighter note, the area above $5,657 has protected bitcoin from extending its sell-off. Therefore, the cryptocurrency could bounce back from the said level to retest a breakout above $6,000.Source
Bitcoin prices plunged sharply over the first three months of the year as concerns about the global coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the economy grew.The benchmark cryptocurrency closed the year’s first quarter at a 10.53 percent loss, trading at circa $6,424 on Coinbase as the marked headed into April session. At its lowest, bitcoin was changing hands for a mere $3,858 per token. But its sharp rebound from there led prices up by as much as $6,090.BTCUSD in a giant downtrend cycle | Source: Yahoo FinanceThe cryptocurrency’s rebound was among the most attractive ones, beating even Gold that fell but maintained its first-quarter gains. The assets recovered happened as central banks across the globe launched aggressive stimulus programs to safeguard their economies from the impact of coronavirus.Even stocks retreated after registering their worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis.Expansionary policies led many top analysts to predict an extended upside rally in the bitcoin markets. Robert Breedlove, the founder & CEO of Parallax Digital, said the cryptocurrency would rise higher owing to central banks’ expansionary policies.“When central banks cut interest rates, they are engaging in money supply expansion and stealing wealth from everyone holding their freshly depreciated currencies. Bitcoin fixes central bank thievery.”Source